Predicting HIV therapy response despite missing data - new models published

Models that accurately predict response to HIV therapy despite incomplete baseline data published in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy

Dear HIV-TRePS user / RDI subscriber

On behalf of everyone at the RDI I hope you and your families are well and have not been too badly affected by COVID-19. We know from personal communications that many of you have been deeply involved in the global response and we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for all your hard work and dedication in fighting this pandemic.

We are writing to you today to inform you of the publication in JAC of a paper describing our development of new models that predict accurately the response to antiretroviral therapy without the need for baseline genotype, time on therapy, CD4 count or any combination of the above. The models, which were trained with some of our largest training sets to date, predicted response accurately with a loss of only 0 - 10% accuracy compared with models with all baseline data present.

All the models were able to identify multiple alternative regimens that were predicted to lead to virological responses for the great majority of cases that failed the new regimen introduced in the clinic.

We believe these latest models represent a major advance with greatly enhanced utility and potential benefit in countries with limited drugs and diagnostics, for example in resource-limited settings

Our press release and the paper can be accessed here:

Press release

RDI Paper in JAC

Finally, please let us know if you can introduce us to other groups that might have data to share with us to expand the size and heterogeneity of the database and improve the accuracy and generalisability of the models.


Date published: 29th April 2021


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