Dear HIV-TRePS user / RDI subscriber
We are writing to you today to announce the addition of two new models to the new flexible HIV-TRePS system launched in March. The models have been trained to predict the absolute viral load over time, without a genotype and even without a baseline CD4 count or the time on therapy. These are the latest models designed to facilitate use of HIV-TRePS in low-income countries where different definitions of virological response may be in use, genotyping may be unavailable and other data may be missing.
The models have been published in JAIDS and were developed in response to feedback from HIV-TRePS users in low and middle-income settings who use a higher definition of virological response than the 50 copies HIV RNA/ml used by our standard models. Rather than predicting the probability of the viral load falling to below this level, the new models predict the absolute viral load change over time, out to a year after the start of the new regimen. These predictions are plotted on a graph so that user can see whether the viral load is likely to go below their threshold for response, whichever one they use, e.g. 200, 400 or the 1,000-copy threshold used by the WHO.
Revell AD, Wang D, Perez-Elias M-J, Wood R, Tempelman H, Clotet B, et al. Predicting virological response to HIV treatment over time. A tool for settings with different definitions of virological response. JAIDS 2019; 81(2):2017-215
Date published: 29th May 2019