Dear RDI subscriber,
We are writing to you today to tell you about the latest advance with the HIV Treatment Response Predictions system - HIV TRePS. We have updated the two sets of models that make predictions of virological response for cases where a genotype is available and for those without a genotype.
Models that do not require a genotype
The models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to therapy following virological failure using 29,574 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype from around the world, 3,179 of which were from South Africa and were used to develop 'local' models. The models were tested with an independent global test set (n=1,700) plus a subset from South Africa (n=222). The global 'no-genotype' models achieved area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.79 with the global and South African tests sets and the South African models achieved AUCs of 0.70 and 0.79. There was no significant difference in accuracy between the models for the South African cases. The global no genotype models identified more alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for cases that failed in the South African clinics than the local models. Based on these results the global models only are being made available via HIV-TRePS.
Models that require a genotype
These global models were trained with 15,130 TCEs that included genotypes. The models were tested with 750 independent cases and achieved an AUC of 0.84.
These new models have the potential to help optimise therapy particularly in resource-limited settings.
We hope this development enhances your use of HIV-TRePS.
The RDI team.
Date published: 16th February 2016